URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: A Mass Casualty Attack Is Coming! | Robert Pape

In this interview, Robert Pape, a leading scholar on Iran and political science, joins Steven Bartlett to discuss the escalating global tensions and the specific threats posed by Iran. Pape argues that Iran is stronger today than before the current conflict began, and that current Western policies are not working. He highlights the escalating risk of a mass casualty attack, either from Iran or by proxy, emphasizing the potential for catastrophic outcomes.

Pape explains the concept of the "Escalation Trap," a model illustrating how conflict can spiral out of control, moving from limited strikes to retaliation, and ultimately to entrenched conflict. He points out that Iran's increased leverage, particularly its control over the Strait of Hormuz, significantly boosts its regional power and influence. This control, he notes, is amplified by Iran's ability to strike targets from within a 500-mile radius, covering vast swathes of the Middle East.

The discussion delves into the failures of past diplomatic and military strategies, including the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, which Pape believes ultimately failed to constrain Iran's ambitions. He criticizes the current US strategy of using purely military means, arguing that it lacks a viable political solution and is likely to lead to further escalation. Pape predicts that if tensions continue to rise, the US may face a situation where it either escalates further, potentially leading to a protracted conflict, or allows Iran to solidify its dominance in the region.

The interview touches on the political implications of the war for President Trump's potential 2024 election chances, suggesting that an escalation could lead to significant backlash. Pape also elaborates on the economic consequences, highlighting the global impact of disruptions to oil markets. He concludes by emphasizing the need for a shift in strategy, moving away from purely coercive measures towards a more nuanced approach that acknowledges Iran's growing regional power and seeks diplomatic solutions.